July 7th, 2020

Chadd Mason, CEO The Cabana Group

Midyear Outlook: Acknowledging Where We Are
To start, I hope everyone had a safe and restful July 4th holiday. Time spent with family and friends is what matters most. The older I get the more that reality sinks in.

I have spent a lot of time over the past few weeks thinking about the world that we are living in and what that means for each of us as investors and as a collective society. I very much understand that it is often necessary to suffer some pain in order to grow and emerge better and stronger. This is true of human beings, our businesses, and even our country. With that said, I am 53 years old and I don’t believe I have ever felt such a divide among us. The undercurrent of frustration and anger is palpable. At least it is in Arkansas, and I suspect it is elsewhere. Between rabid political polarization, racial inequality, the COVID-19 pandemic raging in huge swaths of the country, and the never-ending onslaught of media (professional and social) – it can and does feel overwhelming. Sometimes it is important to just acknowledge where we are. That can be the first step in figuring out how we got here and, more importantly, how to get out. Let us be still for a minute or two and remember that we are all inherently good. We want the best for our children and our neighbor’s children. We are all made stronger by giving more than we receive. There are heroes all around us if we take the time to see.

The world equity markets continue to hold firm in the face of all manner of threats, domestic and biological. I suggested several times over the past few weeks that markets could move up rapidly if the major indices held above their 200-day moving averages after two rapid and steep selloffs during June. We may be seeing that start to play out now. The S&P 500 is within 2% of being positive for the year. That fact alone is amazing, and in my opinion the foundation for prices moving higher. After all, if you haven’t sold by now, what more bad news would it take? Look for a move above 322 on the SPY to cause additional money to move out of cash and back into equities.

At Cabana, we are preparing to reallocate to add risk to our portfolios, absent a sharp downward reversal over the next few days.

IMPORTANT DISCLAIMERS
This material is prepared by Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management and/or its affiliates (together “Cabana”) for informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed reflect the judgement of the author, are as of the date of its publication and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by Cabana to be reliable, are not necessarily all-inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by Cabana, its officers, employees or agents.

This material may contain ‘forward looking’ information that is not purely historical in nature. Such information may include, among other things, projections and forecasts. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for a particular client. The information provided here is neither tax nor legal advice. Investors should speak to their tax professional for specific information regarding their tax situation. Investment involves risk including possible loss of principal.

Cabana LLC, dba Cabana Asset Management (“Cabana”), is an SEC registered investment adviser with offices in Fayetteville, AR and Plano, TX. The firm only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is exempted from registration requirements. Registration as an investment adviser is not an endorsement of the firm by securities regulators and does not mean the adviser has achieved a specific level of skill or ability. Additional information regarding Cabana, including its fees, can be found in Cabana’s Form ADV, Part 2. A copy of which is available upon request or online at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov/.

The Financial Advisor Magazine 2018 Top 50 Fastest-Growing Firms ranking is not indicative of Cabana’s future performance and may not be   representative of actual client experiences. Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor magazine. RIAs were ranked based on percentage growth in year-end 2017 AUM over year-end 2016 AUM with a minimum AUM of $250 million, assets per client, and growth in percentage assets per client. Visit www.fa-mag.com for more information regarding the ranking.

The Financial Advisor Magazine 2019 Top 50 Fastest-Growing Firms ranking is not indicative of Cabana’s future performance and may not be representative of actual client experiences. Cabana did not pay a fee to participate in the ranking and survey and is not affiliated with Financial Advisor Magazine. Working with a highly-rated advisor also does not ensure that a client or prospective client will experience a higher level of performance. These ratings should not be viewed as an endorsement of the advisor by any client and do not represent any specific client’s evaluation. RIAs were based on number of clients in 2018, percentage growth in total percentage assets under management from year end 2017 to 2018, and growth in percentage growth in assets per client during the same time period.  Visit www.fa-mag.com for more information regarding the ranking.

No client should assume that the future performance of any specific investment or strategy will be profitable or equal to past performance. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. All strategies have different degrees of risk. There is no guarantee that any specific investment or strategy will be suitable or profitable for any investor. Asset allocation and diversification will not necessarily improve an investor’s returns and cannot eliminate the risk of investment losses. While loss tolerance and targeted “drawdown” are identified on the front end for each portfolio, Cabana’s algorithm does not take any one client’s situation into account. It is the responsibility of the advisor to determine what is suitable for the client. An advisor should not simply rely on the name of any portfolio to determine what is suitable. Cabana manages assets on multiple custodial platforms. Performance results for specific investors may vary based upon differences in associated costs and asset availability.

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